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Tuesday, October 13, 2026

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The Morning DriveTuesday, October 13

Wholesale softens, buyers slide down-market, and the money moves to the back end

Cox cuts its year-end outlook as the Manheim index slips and affordability pushes shoppers toward older metal and hybrids — which is exactly the car on your line.

THE INDEX BLINKED

Manheim's Used Vehicle Value Index fell to 205.9 in September, down 0.6%, with depreciation accelerating on fuel costs, rate pressure and general economic grind — enough for Cox to trim its 2026 year-end outlook. Separately, Cox says affordability is steering demand toward hybrids and older used vehicles, which is a polite way of saying your customer's budget just got smaller again. That's a split screen: softening wholesale on the buy side, stronger traffic on the cheap end of your inventory. If you've been paying up at auction on the assumption values hold, re-price your bids this week, not next month.

SUBPRIME IS THE STORY

A third-generation dealer is out telling franchise stores they're leaving 50 cars a month on the table by not having a subprime desk — which is the business you already run, now with new competition sniffing around it. Meanwhile the forums are chewing on where AI collections actually break down at 30, 60 and 90 days past due, and one operator posting a $3,350 gap hit is asking peers what theirs looks like. The deal is made at the buy and kept in collections; everything in between is paperwork. If franchise stores start building real subprime departments, your edge has to be the underwriting and the follow-up, not just the willingness to say yes.

EV SIGNALS, CROSSED

EVs hit 6.5% of new sales last quarter — the best showing since the $7,500 credit went away — even as other tallies put the US market down 30% and Volkswagen's domestic EV volume off 90% while it runs out inventory. Add a VW recall of 22,524 ID.4s where the battery fire cause is still unknown and owners are told to cap charging at 80%. Translation for the lot: used EV supply is cheap and getting cheaper, but the risk is nameplate-specific and open recalls can park a car for weeks. Know the recall status before you bid, not after it's in your inventory feed.

SOURCING AND SPEND

Alex Perdikis says AI texts to service customers about selling or trading pulled a 60% response rate and bought cars the same day — his argument being your old customers are the best inventory source you'll ever have, and you already own the phone numbers. On the spend side, a blunt piece warns that the "certified" Amazon advertising vendors filling your inbox mostly aren't, and dealers keep getting taken. One forum thread asks a question worth asking yourself: have you actually counted how many of your cars are live on Marketplace right now? Cheapest car you'll buy this month is the one already in your DMS; cheapest marketing is the listing you forgot to post.

Closeline DMS

The system that wrote this brief also runs the store.

One system for inventory, CRM, desking, F&I, recon, collections, a live wholesale network and digital vehicle brochures. Built in dealerships, not in a conference room.

Closeline DMS

Read this every morning. Then go run the best store in town.

The Morning Drive is free and always will be. The system that writes it desks the deal, prices the car, chases the stip and answers the lead — for independent dealers who are tired of paying franchise money for franchise software.

Wholesale softens, buyers slide down-market, and the money moves to the back end — CloseLine Intel, Tuesday, October 13